Do rebuttals affect future science?

Jeannette A. Banobi, Trevor A. Branch, and Ray Hilborn

School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, Box 355020, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195 USA

In theory, rebuttals play a vital role in the progression of science, pointing out flaws in published articles, and ensuring that science self-corrects. However, the effect of rebuttals has not been tested in practice. We examined seven high-profile original articles and their rebuttals, finding that original articles were cited 17 times more than rebuttals, and that annual citation numbers were unaffected by rebuttals. When citations did not mention rebuttals, 95% accepted the thesis of the original article uncritically, and support remained high over time. On the rare occasions when rebuttals were cited, the citing papers on average had neutral views of the original article, and 8% actually believed that the rebuttal agreed with the original article. Overall, only 5% of all citations were critical of the original paper. Our results point to an urgent need to change current publishing models to ensure that rebuttals are prominently linked to original articles.

Key words: citation analysis, fisheries, rebuttals, scientific publishing

Received 29 October 2010; revised 25 January 2011; accepted 26 January 2011; final version received 9 March 2011; published 30 March 2011.

Corresponding Editor: D. P. C. Peters.

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